Zuma’s nine lives

For a man who is said to have received no formal education, I have always thought of Zuma as a very intelligent man. He is in all manner made for the words, smart and cunning a fact he seems to be well aware of thus constantly puts those traits to use even though his shrewd nature has more often than not put him in trouble. It must be mentioned that Mr Zuma has also in many instances used his guile nature to good use.

His profile from various sources, suggests that he was a key figure in brokering peace between the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Africa National Congress (ANC) in Natal region in the early 90’s. The profile further indicates that Zuma’s Zulu heritage played a big part in ending violence that was then present in Natal region as the Mangosuthu Buthelezi led IFP, apparently put extra emphasis on Zulu pride and political power. This in my view was a very important role that the ANC would not have given to someone without the credentials. The Zulu are quite a proud and militant people and at the time the situation was very delicate.

The belligerent nature of the Zulu people can easily be confirmed in the firmness and military mentality of King Shaka. In more recent years, precisely 2015, some pockets of South Africans engaged in xenophobic attacks against fellow African nationals immediately after a statement from the current reigning Zulu king Goodwill Zwelithini, quoted as saying "Let us pop our head lice. We must remove ticks and place them outside in the sun. We ask foreign nationals to pack their belongings and be sent back." The attacks on foreign nationals that followed were shocking and only best described in the words of Donald Trump, fire and fury, and went on unabated for weeks. I wrote about those xenophobic attacks in a blog post I called thou-shalt-kill-thy-neighbour.

 

Of course it will be nonsensical and extremely unfair to suggest that every Zulu is militant based on the fact that there once lived king Shaka who was Zulu. However, there are many out there who get aggressive just because they are Zulu. They may be in the minority, but they exist and its fanatics that brew up trouble. The Zulu are the largest ethnic grouping in South Africa with an estimated population of over 10 million. You may agree or not agree with me but this simple task makes Zuma a genius in my eyes.

In this context, Zuma's Zulu heritage made him the perfect panacea in ANC's efforts to end the violence, emphasizing the aspect of political power and not tribal ‘domination’. The tag of Jacob Zuma being a proud Zulu has more often than not proved to be the antidote for his political rise in post-apartheid South Africa. For his efforts in bringing peace and unity in the Natal region, Zuma was rewarded with a meteoric rise in the ANC rising to deputy president in 1997 and in 1999 becoming the deputy president of South Africa.

Although Zuma was removed as deputy president of South Africa in 2005 by then president Thabo Mbeki after being implicated in corruption scandals some of which saw Zuma’s financial advisor Shabbir Shaik convicted for corruption and fraud, he has always found an opportunity to rise. In the same year Zuma faced rape charges which he later won after the court agreed with him that the sex was consensual. The highlight of the rape trial was when Zuma admitted to not using a condom despite knowing that the woman was HIV-positive but that he took a shower after the sex to decrease the risk of contracting the virus. The statement was heavily condemned by many people especially that Zuma was at the time head of the National AIDS council.

The legal battles which culminated into Zuma being dropped as South Africa’s deputy president did not keep him down forever as he emerged to defeat the incumbent Thabo Mbeki as ANC’s president in 2007. The following year Zuma was cleared of all corruption charges and his supporters propagated in a bellicose manner that the charges were politically motivated by Mbeki who was then recalled by the ANC National Executive Committee leading to his resignation. In 2009 Zuma became president of South Africa winning by a big margin and becoming the first Zulu president as both Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki were Xhosa.

Throughout his presidency, Zuma has faced a plethora of allegations and legal battles ranging from questionable arms deals, failure to declare his assets, dubious appointments, to the influence of the wealthy Gupta family and most recently the upgrade on security and private setting at his personal homestead at Nkandla in rural Kwazulu-Natal. Since then, the two main opposition parties the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Democratic Alliance (DA) have repeatedly campaigned for Zuma’s resignation but to no avail. More recently factions within the ANC have emerged prompting the opposition to push the latest vote of no confidence in Zuma’s presidency to be done though a secret ballot.

This was the eighth time Zuma faced the no confidence vote and had won the previous seven easily. However when the eighth vote was held on 8^th August 2017, the motion was defeated 198-177. The outcome was expected, but not this close. The result essentially meant that even thought there were some abstentions, at the very least 26 ANC MP’s voted in favour of the motion with the opposition, under the safety net of secret ballot. It is more frightening if at all there are any opposition MP’s that voted against the motion, then the number of ANC MP’s ready to recall Zuma and risk everything is higher most likely close to 40.

I am highly skeptical of there being a 9^th No-confidence vote coming soon. But should it come, that too will be defeated as Zuma has a political life of the proverbial cat. He has nine lives and unlike when the ANC recalled Thabo Mbeki, they don’t have a successor in waiting now (Especially not a successor in waiting who will be the first Zulu president after two Xhosa). There is too much for the ANC to lose. In addition, the threat of the DA is more now under the leadership of Mmusi Maimane than it was under Helen Zille, though the DA is still not a much trusted party in Black South Africa.

Whatever happens, Mr Zuma is smart enough to outwit his opponents. He is definitely not going down now. Not from a motion of no confidence. Jacob Zuma was clearly thrust to power on the back of two Xhosa presidents, after the end of the apartheid era. He represents the biggest tribal grouping in South Africa, and that is a big factor in African politics. A factor far more important than Zuma’s tribe is the fact that he represents the ANC, a party of Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and Walter Sisulu. This is the party synonymous with the struggle against apartheid and is still very popular in most parts of the nation no matter how unpopular Jacob Zuma has become.

It can be highly argued that many ANC MP’s who voted to keep Zuma, basically voted for their livelihood as a snap election now would have proved too unpredictable. Voting for Zuma would have essentially meant voting themselves out. My view is that Zuma understands these dynamics and he knows well enough how his survival rests on him keeping all the dynamics at play to his advantage.

Jacob Zuma may have survived yet another motion of no confidence, but the truth is that his enemies are now everywhere and that he is hanging by the thread only because there is clearly no ready successor. The question is for how long will Zuma's cunning and witful nature save him? He will survive for now but should South Africans find a suitable successor, he will be gone. I hope the likes of Mmusi Maimane do know this - that it is just a suitable and sobber successor (or alternative) that the people seek.