Realities of 2014 National Budget

CIMA Official Terminology, 2005 defines a budget as;

'A quantitative expression of a plan for a defined period of time. It may include planned sales volumes and revenues, resource quantities, costs and expenses, assets, liabilities and cash flows.'

Any serious annual goals, plans, budgets, and expectations cannot be made in isolation, but in sequence with or bearing in mind how the state policies will affect such plans. If one wanted to borrow money to invest in aviation because the previous year the government had investment incentives for the sector, it would be wise to verify if that incentive will still apply in the New Year. It is also imperative for that investor to check on the interest rates to pay back that loan which will be applicable.

The example given above of course is a simplistic way of looking at things. In reality, any investor would consider far too many factors than that. But, I know for sure that, many individuals especially would be Small & Medium Enterprises (SME), could do well to thoroughly read through the budget and uncover sectors to invest in which would provide opportunities for the most returns. For a growing economy like Zambia, SMEs are as focal to the country’s growth trajectory as the multinational corporations.

Zambia’s 2014 national budget, like many before, is such a big document I may not be able to discuss all the issues contained in it. A lot of competent people have held budget review discussions and deliberated on most of the issues at length. I will only endeavor to touch on the subject of tax, in particular - Pay As You Earn (PAYE), customs & excise duty and Value Added Tax (VAT). I will also make mention of aspects relating to the set macro-economic objectives, sources of budget revenue, major expenditure sectors and of course the impact on the people, of some of the changes.

  

Macroeconomic objectives – Attainable!

The theme of Zambia’s 2014 National Budget is “Moving Forward to Consolidate Growth and Social Justice in Peace and Unity”. Reading through the 21 page pdf copy of the budget speech which I secured, I’d honestly say it is ambitious, especially in terms of the set macroeconomic targets. Macroeconomic objectives for 2014 include:

·         Achieve real GDP growth rate of above 7 percent.

·         Create at least 200 000 decent jobs.

·         Attain end year inflation of no more than 6.5 percent.

·         Increase international reserves to over 3 months of import cover.

·      Maintain a fiscally sustainable public external debt level so that debt service and amortisation do not exceed 30 percent of domestic revenues.

·         Increase domestic revenue collections to over 21 percent of GDP.

·      Limit domestic borrowing to 2.5 percent of GDP and contain the overall deficit to no more than 6.6 percent of GDP.

As ambitious as some of the targets may seem, they are attainable. Zambia has posted growth of above 6 percent GDP for the last 3-4years even at the height of the global economic crisis that started in the aftermath of the infamous collapse in 2008 of Lehman Brothers, sending the global financial system into near meltdown. The global economy continues to slowly recover with growth in 2013 projected at 2.9 percent. The UK economy was projected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2 percent in 2014.

I would have even expected an ambitious a target as 8 or 9 percent.

Customs and Excise duty – See opportunity sectors and no go sectors!

All proposed changes under Customs and Excise are effective 1 January 2014.

Customs duty on airtime has been increased from 10percent to 15 percent. I received a message on 4^th January from MTN, stating that all tariffs had been adjusted effective 1^st January 2014 due to the revised Excise duty on air time. I haven’t received any text from either Zamtel or Airtel but going by my observation on credit usage time, they have effected similar adjustments. 

Those that have traded in air time do constantly relate that it is a business of volumes. The profit margins are so small such that if your sales volumes are low, you will just be withholding working capital. The mobile phone service providers though will not worry if the number of air time dealers reduces as that can be cushioned by the mobile money service. The problem with mobile money is that it has not been fully developed even to the levels some east African countries have done.

The biggest issue, on air time adjustments however is the fact that communication is now going to be a lot more expensive. Business as well as personal communication which is as important as production itself, will incur extra costs. It is less than a year after fuel prices went up and soon we expect electricity tariffs to also be adjusted as has become the case every year where ZESCO proposes a huge tariff increment and the Energy Regulation Board will approve a slightly lower adjustment. The cost of doing business will generally go higher.

Semi processed metals and base metals – An export duty of 10% has been proposed to be introduced on semi processed metals and base metals. The idea behind is to encourage processing within Zambia, and realize a lot more revenue from those that opt to export semi processed base metals. I am restrained from making further comments on this as I am not a metallurgist and I lack any basic knowledge regarding how this industry operates.

Clear beer – Excise duty on clear beer has been restored to 60 percent by revocation of Statutory Instrument No. 23 of 2010. This has necessitated the upward adjustment of beer prices. I spent the bulk of my afternoon of Sunday 5^th January 2014 around ‘Chris corner’ area in Lusaka and the topic on everyone’s lips was the Excise duty on telephone air time credit and beer. I endured an afternoon long of grumbles from the gentlemen and ladies I spent that Sunday afternoon with at one of the pubs around Chris Corner area as they imbibed their beloved Mosi and Castle lager now fetching a minimum of K7 (as I am made to understand the old price was K5).

A lot of people will support this increase in excise duty on clear beer, as pushing  the beer price upwards would be expected to make some people stay away from daily drinking sprees thus highly regulate alcohol consumption in the nation. Unfortunately, price has never been a deterrent solution to alcohol anywhere. But of course this is a welcome move on government as a lot of revenue for the state will be raised.

One dimension that very few have looked at is that if the increment does deter a lot of people from drinking beer, once the beer sales volumes go down, this may affect profit level for beer makers in Zambia like Zambia Breweries (ZB). SABMiller, the major shareholder in Zambia Breweries may decide to pull out. We have seen other companies threaten to do so once profitability is in jeopardy. However, SAB Miller and ZB will be here longer as I don’t see any other increment on beer tax even though a lot of people would want to see this for among other reasons, to control underage drinking and excessive alcohol abuse. However, the government will want to protect this industry, as it is a major source of employment for many. Industry must not be taxed to death.

Removal of customs duty on crude oil – Customs duty on crude oil has been removed. This action was a logical one especially considering that 2013 saw increment in fuel pump prices after the government removed subsidies on fuel.

Period for removal/entry of Goods In Bond – Section 32(4) of the Customs and Excise Act is proposed to be amended to reduce the number of days within which goods Removed In Bond may be entered for consumption, warehousing or re-export from 30 days to 15 days. Section 33(1) of the same act is also proposed to be amended to reduce the period within which goods may be entered from 30 days to 15

Pay As You Earn (PAYE) – Very good news for lower bracket earners!

The exempt threshold has been increased from ZMW 2,200 to ZMW 3,000 per month or from ZMW 26,400 to ZMW 36,000 per annum. This in some way gives the much talked about relief on the working class who are believed to be carrying the burden of providing government with revenue from the various taxes chief of which is PAYE. In Mr Chikwanda’s word, “...a demonstration of our commitment of putting more money in our people’s pockets, I propose to increase the current exempt threshold of Pay As You Earn by more than 36 percent…”

This entails that everyone with gross earnings below K 3,000 will contribute PAYE at 0%, effectively not pay this tax. And everyone above that will be taxed at applicable new income tax bands as; 0- K 3,000 taxed at 0%, K 3,001 – 3,800 taxed at 25%, 3,801-5,900 at 30% K5,900 and above at 35%.

Value Added Tax (VAT)

VAT has been expanded by shifting several categories of zero rated goods and services to the standard rated category. This will generate a revenue gain of K151 million. While the PAYE exempt threshold has been adjusted upwards, thereby making the worker have a little more disposable income, the groceries and some food items such as dairy milk that were VAT zero rated will become more expensive at the local supermarkets and retail chain outlets. That money which the government was collecting directly through employers as PAYE will now be collected through the supermarkets and other retail outlets as VAT.

This is perhaps why a lot of people have been lobbying for a tax regime that compels multinational corporations, mines in particular, to contribute more to the government’s treasury. A lot of sectors of the Zambian society have been lobbying for a tax regime such as the windfall tax that was once introduced by the government under Levy Mwanawasa. I understand there was an extensive study that was done regarding this issue, and if Levy’s government implemented the windfall tax based on the recommendation from that study then someone must just pick up that report from the office where it is gathering dust and then go ahead to devise the best way possible of implementation.

However, tax specifically targeted at the mining industry has been a contentious issue in all parts of the world. Alaska, Chile, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Namibia and Guinea are all examples. Guinea recently amended its mining code to reduce some taxes in an effort to improve the investment climate, as mining investors and major producers became gradually circumspect of big-ticket projects in difficult locations. A sharp slowdown in global commodity prices, since the 2008 global economic downturn led to record profit declines thus in order to remain competitive and be able to entice Foreign Direct Investments in mining, tax incentives could have proved to be the easy way out. This is the same reason the windfall tax regime was abandoned in Zambia

Some experts though still argue that the current tax regime in Zambia is not sufficient considering that minerals are not a renewable resource. They propose a tax system that taxes based on the amount of resources pulled from the ground or the market value of the natural resource product and in addition have a severance tax on top of other taxes - including royalties and corporate income tax.

My view… My thoughts...

Mr Chikwanda has stuck to the theme of his budget, and having a look at where he is spending money you will note that it is on economic activities and social protection. Mr Chikwanda’s budget has seen significant increases on expenditure in agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and construction. This is enough to connote his ambitions in job creation so as to "consolidate economic growth and promote social justice".

Part of the reason fuel and maize subsidies were removed in 2013 was that in most cases the beneficiaries were not the intended poor. In this respect, the government has promised to implement better designed social protection programmes such as the social cash transfer scheme that was piloted in several districts. In 2014, Government’s contribution to the social cash transfer scheme will be scaled up by over 700 percent in order to make a significant impact on reducing extreme poverty.

For most workers the announcement that the exempt threshold on PAYE had been adjusted upwards was good news. A budget is as good as its implementation is, not even the printed ink in the yellow book. The only time to really judge would be after the implementation has been set in motion and that would be after the first PAYE deductions are effected in 2014. A budget, whether personal or national must realistically conform to the level of resources available for achieving set targets, hence someone must cushion all the massive social spending in road construction social protection and of course the increased government wage bill.

In the past, the worker has proved to be a reliable source of revenue for the treasury thus any relief is welcome. However relief on PAYE and an increase on VAT greatly puts the worker in exactly the same position he/she was before as this is likely to inflate commodity prices. The good news is that the increment on VAT will only apply on items previously exempted from VAT tax.

The quest to broaden the tax base must continue.  PAYE alone cannot sustain the expenditure investments that can bring meaningful economic development. One sector that does not realize its potential in terms of revenue collection is Rental Income Tax and I would love to see a lot more focus on this in 2014.

Put simply, rental income is income derived from the letting of real property i.e. rent. Under the provisions of Section 82A of the Income Tax Act, the tenant is under obligation to deduct tax (withholding tax at 15%) from the payment of rent and remit the same to the ZRA within Fourteen (14) days from the date of accrual. The withholding tax on rent is not final, and as such the landlord/payee, is required at the year-end to submit an Income tax Return and account for the gross rental income (before withholding tax deduction) thereon.

The way forward is to broaden the tax base so as to ensure maximum revenue collection.